BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 397% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+397%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 397% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 90% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 90% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.16.0
20273.61.16.1
20283.71.26.1
20293.71.36.2
20303.81.36.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA462004
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA432002
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA412021
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA382012
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA292017
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA262013
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA222025
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA212025
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA182025
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA182025
Moskee 3WYOMING182025
SundanceWYOMING172025
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA142025
Maynard CouleeMONTANA122025
Reed PointMONTANA72025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA61991
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
Moskee 2WYOMING62021
BrandenbergMONTANA32014
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
SeelyWYOMING31996
MoskeeWYOMING32001
Seely 2WYOMING32025
BrusettMONTANA22023
JordanMONTANA22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.