BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 482% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+482%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 481% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.84–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.84–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.761.9
20261.40.781.9
20271.40.802.0
20281.40.822.0
20291.40.842.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly RdgeUTAH192024
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH162023
SoapstoneUTAH152024
Heber Mtn.UTAH152024
Dry ParkARIZONA112024
South ForkCOLORADO112024
La Sal 3UTAH102024
Navajo LakeUTAH92024
Wasatch NfUTAH92024
Mount EvansCOLORADO72024
TsaileARIZONA62022
Lost LakeCOLORADO62024
Steamboat L.COLORADO62024
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO62007
Lost Cr. ResUTAH62018
Douglas PassCOLORADO52019
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO52023
WestcliffeCOLORADO52016
HeeneyCOLORADO52019
RichfieldUTAH52019
Bryce CanyonUTAH52024
Red CliffCOLORADO42024
Groundhog RsCOLORADO42024
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO42024
Moon PassCOLORADO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.