BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+527%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.84–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.84–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.761.9
20271.40.781.9
20281.40.801.9
20291.40.822.0
20301.40.842.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH162023
Heber Mtn.UTAH152025
Ryan ParkWYOMING112025
Dry ParkARIZONA102025
Wasatch NfUTAH92024
SoapstoneUTAH92025
La Sal 3UTAH92025
Navajo LakeUTAH82025
Beck 2UTAH82025
Mount EvansCOLORADO72024
TsaileARIZONA62022
Steamboat L.COLORADO62025
Gold Hill 2COLORADO62025
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO62007
Lost Cr. ResUTAH62018
Bryce CanyonUTAH62025
Douglas PassCOLORADO52019
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO52023
South ForkCOLORADO52025
WestcliffeCOLORADO52016
HeeneyCOLORADO52019
RichfieldUTAH52019
FerronUTAH52025
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO42025
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.