BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+237%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.6–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.6–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.45.7
20274.12.55.8
20284.22.55.8
20294.22.65.9
20304.32.65.9

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson MillsMAINE242025
NewcombNEW-YORK212022
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE202025
Carrying PlMAINE182025
Pillsbury PdMAINE171968
WytopitlockMAINE162025
InletNEW-YORK162017
Seboomook LkMAINE152014
WinnMAINE152025
ReedsMAINE132025
EastbrookMAINE132025
GabrielsNEW-YORK132025
Underwood 2NEW-YORK132009
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE112025
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK112017
NorthfieldMAINE101981
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK102010
AuroraMAINE92021
BaxterMAINE91988
HudsonMAINE92016
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE92025
WanakenaNEW-YORK92025
SabattisNEW-YORK91983
Northfld FlsVERMONT92025
CharlestonMAINE82021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.