BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+287%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 136% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.14–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+136%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 136% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.14–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.130.54
20270.340.130.55
20280.340.140.55
20290.350.140.56
20300.350.140.56

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BranchportNEW-YORK32022
N WilmurtNEW-YORK31998
BalmatNEW-YORK32007
GhentNEW-YORK22021
HamburgNEW-YORK22023
PulaskiNEW-YORK22022
Alder CreekNEW-YORK22004
ParishvilleNEW-YORK22025
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22022
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA22009
ColchesterVERMONT21990
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12012
HighlandNEW-YORK12007
W ShokanNEW-YORK12018
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11997
CatskillsNEW-YORK11997
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12023
CayugaNEW-YORK12023
MacdougallNEW-YORK12003
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12024
RushvilleNEW-YORK12002
Canadice LNEW-YORK12025
MendonNEW-YORK12005
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12006
RandolphNEW-YORK12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.