BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 450% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+450%Since 1970
49Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 450% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.16–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029
0.36Projected 2029 index
0.16–0.5795% range
±25%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.140.55
20260.350.150.55
20270.350.150.56
20280.360.160.56
20290.360.160.57

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
ParishvilleNEW-YORK42024
BranchportNEW-YORK32022
N WilmurtNEW-YORK31998
BalmatNEW-YORK32007
GhentNEW-YORK22021
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
HamburgNEW-YORK22023
PulaskiNEW-YORK22022
Alder CreekNEW-YORK22004
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22022
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA22009
ColchesterVERMONT21990
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12012
HighlandNEW-YORK12007
W ShokanNEW-YORK12018
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11997
CatskillsNEW-YORK11997
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12023
CayugaNEW-YORK12023
MacdougallNEW-YORK12003
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12024
RushvilleNEW-YORK12002
MendonNEW-YORK12005
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12006
RandolphNEW-YORK12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.