BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 388% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+388%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
390Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 388% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 6.9–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 6.9–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.56.58.6
20277.76.68.7
20287.86.78.9
20297.96.89.0
20308.06.99.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SmithsburgMARYLAND292014
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA272025
DoverNEW-JERSEY262023
OdenvilleALABAMA252025
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA242024
StevensonALABAMA232024
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA232021
Signal MtnTENNESSEE222025
JeromeVIRGINIA222025
RiversideALABAMA202013
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA202025
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA202023
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA202025
Mt OliveALABAMA192025
BrooksvilleALABAMA192025
ChoccoloccoALABAMA192025
Amos MillGEORGIA192022
OldtownMARYLAND192025
StonecreekOHIO192025
Tick RidgeOHIO192019
CartersvilleGEORGIA182025
LinwoodGEORGIA182023
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY182024
WilliamsportMARYLAND182025
Green RidgeMARYLAND182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.