BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+392%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
389Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.9 (95% range 6.8–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.9 (95% range 6.8–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.46.48.5
20267.66.58.6
20277.76.68.8
20287.86.78.9
20297.96.89.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA342024
Potomac ParkMARYLAND312024
SmithsburgMARYLAND292014
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA272024
High PointNEW-JERSEY262024
DoverNEW-JERSEY262023
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA242024
StevensonALABAMA232024
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA232021
OdenvilleALABAMA202024
RiversideALABAMA202013
DresdenOHIO202024
KaylorPENNSYLVANIA202024
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA202023
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA202022
GreensportALABAMA192024
Amos MillGEORGIA192022
CarterKENTUCKY192024
Tick RidgeOHIO192019
ClintonWEST-VIRGINIA192024
ChoccoloccoALABAMA182024
LinwoodGEORGIA182023
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY182024
JenningsMARYLAND182024
ElizabethvilPENNSYLVANIA182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.