BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 16–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 16–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181619
2026181619
2027181619
2028181620
2029181620

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad BranchFLORIDA622024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI612019
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI542019
LovedaleFLORIDA452011
New HopeFLORIDA442011
NorwoodLOUISIANA442024
Vicksburg NpMISSISSIPPI442021
Miller XrdsFLORIDA422019
WoodbineGEORGIA422024
OsceolaFLORIDA402024
BloxhamFLORIDA392022
CallahanFLORIDA392024
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA392022
EpesALABAMA382024
Sanderson 2FLORIDA382024
BostonGEORGIA382024
Oak Ridge VickMISSISSIPPI382021
MansfieldTENNESSEE382024
ForestMISSISSIPPI362024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA362024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA352015
BickhamLOUISIANA352024
BlountstownFLORIDA342024
FranklintonLOUISIANA332024
WorkmoreGEORGIA322019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.