BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+199%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191523
2027191523
2028191523
2029191524
2030201624

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA672025
ShawLOUISIANA492024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA482025
KraemerLOUISIANA362025
MayflowerLOUISIANA312025
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA302025
South BendARKANSAS292025
RoselandLOUISIANA272025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI272021
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI272025
BardwellKENTUCKY262003
River RoadLOUISIANA252025
SaffellARKANSAS222019
FloydLOUISIANA222021
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI212025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI212025
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI201994
DundeeMISSISSIPPI192022
CommerceMISSISSIPPI191993
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS182025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA172025
EnglandARKANSAS162025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA162025
ConcordLOUISIANA162019
Rayville 2LOUISIANA152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.