BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+202%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191523
2026191523
2027191523
2028191524
2029201624

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA792024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA672024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA612024
KraemerLOUISIANA542024
ShawLOUISIANA492024
South BendARKANSAS322023
MayflowerLOUISIANA322024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA302024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI272021
HughesARKANSAS262023
BardwellKENTUCKY262003
River RoadLOUISIANA262024
RoselandLOUISIANA252024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI242024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA232022
SaffellARKANSAS222019
FloydLOUISIANA222021
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI222024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI222024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI201994
FrogmoreLOUISIANA192024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI192022
CommerceMISSISSIPPI191993
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS172024
ConcordLOUISIANA162019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.