BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+117%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.613
2027107.613
2028107.713
2029117.713
2030117.813

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mount UnionLOUISIANA312025
SmyrnaTEXAS302010
Flat CreekLOUISIANA282025
Derry 2LOUISIANA252025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA242025
Fishville 2LOUISIANA232025
DibollTEXAS222025
CrossroadsTEXAS222025
FishvilleLOUISIANA212017
Burr FerryLOUISIANA212025
Alexander StTEXAS212025
WechesTEXAS212025
WomackLOUISIANA202025
Liberty HillTEXAS202025
NanceARKANSAS192025
Powell Park 2TEXAS192025
CaledoniaTEXAS182025
FredTEXAS182025
DerryLOUISIANA171989
ClayLOUISIANA172025
Easton 2TEXAS172025
Neches BithTEXAS172017
Coal HillARKANSAS162023
EastonLOUISIANA161990
ZwolleLOUISIANA162023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.