BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 7.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 7.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025107.413
2026107.413
2027107.513
2028107.513
2029107.613

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwillLOUISIANA392024
SmyrnaTEXAS302010
ClayLOUISIANA282024
Mount UnionLOUISIANA282024
Fishville 2LOUISIANA262024
Derry 2LOUISIANA222024
FishvilleLOUISIANA212017
Flat CreekLOUISIANA202024
SandbluffOKLAHOMA181995
CaledoniaTEXAS182024
WechesTEXAS182024
DerryLOUISIANA171989
WomackLOUISIANA172024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA172024
EnterpriseLOUISIANA172024
Neches BithTEXAS172017
Coal HillARKANSAS162023
EastonLOUISIANA161990
ZwolleLOUISIANA162023
Town BluffTEXAS162024
DibollTEXAS162024
ChandlerTEXAS162004
NanceARKANSAS142024
ChathamLOUISIANA141975
Ivan 2LOUISIANA142016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.