BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 48× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

48×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 48× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.46–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.46–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.351.2
20260.800.381.2
20270.820.401.2
20280.850.431.3
20290.880.461.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS82024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS72024
NewcastleMAINE62024
Turner 2MAINE52024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS52024
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
W RutlandVERMONT42024
WestbrookMAINE32024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS32016
KasoagNEW-YORK32024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT21987
BethelMAINE22019
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS22022
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS22023
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Post MillsVERMONT22024
S WallingfrdVERMONT22022
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12024
GreenwoodMAINE12023
HartfordMAINE12014
FreedomMAINE12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.