BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

31×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 4.5–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 4.5–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.64.17.2
20265.74.27.3
20275.84.37.4
20286.04.47.5
20296.14.57.6

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HiramOHIO252021
LattasburgOHIO172024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA172023
HighlandNEW-YORK162022
W ShokanNEW-YORK152019
HebronOHIO142024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK132024
North EastonNEW-YORK132024
HamburgNEW-YORK122024
PenfieldNEW-YORK122024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA122024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK112024
NaplesNEW-YORK112024
PittsfieldOHIO112024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA112023
CatskillsNEW-YORK102015
Canadice LNEW-YORK102024
Valley CityOHIO102024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA102024
GhentNEW-YORK92024
OrleansNEW-YORK92024
LenoxOHIO82024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA82024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK72024
CastileNEW-YORK72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.