BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 30× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

30×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 30× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 4.7–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 4.7–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.84.37.4
20276.04.47.5
20286.14.57.6
20296.24.67.8
20306.34.77.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesNEW-YORK242025
PenfieldNEW-YORK232025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK212025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA192025
HighlandNEW-YORK162022
HamburgNEW-YORK162025
W ShokanNEW-YORK152019
North EastonNEW-YORK142025
LattasburgOHIO132025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK112025
CastileNEW-YORK112025
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK112025
ByronNEW-YORK112025
PittsfieldOHIO112024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA112025
CatskillsNEW-YORK102015
LucerneOHIO92025
LenoxOHIO82025
Herner CrnsOHIO82025
Valley CityOHIO82025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA82025
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA82025
MacdougallNEW-YORK72025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK72024
OrleansNEW-YORK72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.