BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

46×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.41–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.41–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.630.350.91
20270.650.370.92
20280.660.380.94
20290.680.400.95
20300.690.410.97

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BashawWISCONSIN92025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN82025
Sand LakeMICHIGAN52025
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN52025
Isabella 2MICHIGAN42025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN42025
PhillipsWISCONSIN42025
WausaukeeWISCONSIN42025
CunardMICHIGAN32021
Bear LakeMICHIGAN32025
OberlinMICHIGAN32024
HarriettaMICHIGAN32025
MayfieldMICHIGAN32025
Mille LacsMINNESOTA32024
BrainerdMINNESOTA32024
CouderayWISCONSIN32018
GilmanWISCONSIN32025
CrandonWISCONSIN32024
ConoverWISCONSIN32025
CavourWISCONSIN32025
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22025
CreightonMICHIGAN22025
IsabellaMICHIGAN22010
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN22019
CathroMICHIGAN22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.