BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

40×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.40–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.40–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.340.80
20260.580.350.81
20270.590.370.82
20280.610.380.84
20290.620.400.85

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN72024
MayfieldMICHIGAN72022
Washington IWISCONSIN72024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN62024
CunardMICHIGAN32021
OberlinMICHIGAN32024
Sand LakeMICHIGAN32024
HarriettaMICHIGAN32024
Mille LacsMINNESOTA32024
BrainerdMINNESOTA32024
CouderayWISCONSIN32018
CrandonWISCONSIN32024
BashawWISCONSIN32022
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN32023
IsabellaMICHIGAN22010
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN22019
CathroMICHIGAN22016
Seney NwrMICHIGAN22018
SidnawMICHIGAN21993
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA22023
DebsMINNESOTA22015
McgregorMINNESOTA22022
Union TwpWISCONSIN22024
ExelandWISCONSIN22024
GilmanWISCONSIN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.