BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pygmy Nuthatch In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pygmy Nuthatch In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.59
20260.240.000.59
20270.240.000.58
20280.240.000.58
20290.240.000.58

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Silver CreekOREGON182024
Donelly 2OREGON72022
Deer ParkWASHINGTON72015
Eagle RockOREGON61978
Spring LakeWASHINGTON61990
SilviesOREGON42023
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON42023
Salmon RiverIDAHO32021
KalispellMONTANA32018
ArleeMONTANA32013
Pablo Res.MONTANA32007
SkalkahoMONTANA31997
AlbeeOREGON32022
Summit PrOREGON32024
TroyOREGON31995
DonnellyOREGON32004
AlturasIDAHO21968
FeathervilleIDAHO22005
NinemileMONTANA22024
Painted RockMONTANA21997
FloraOREGON22005
OchocoOREGON21981
WickiupOREGON21972
Mount VernonOREGON22008
Howard Mdws.OREGON22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.