BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.000.76
20260.380.000.76
20270.380.000.76
20280.370.000.76
20290.370.000.76

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bunker HillWASHINGTON152024
AlderpointCALIFORNIA132012
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON112024
GlasgowOREGON102024
HolmesCALIFORNIA82013
Hazel CampOREGON82022
WedderburnOREGON62023
Fish RockCALIFORNIA52014
NavarroCALIFORNIA52011
LongvaleCALIFORNIA52013
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON52021
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA42024
Rio DellCALIFORNIA42011
HauserOREGON41979
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA31973
Mendota 3WASHINGTON32024
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA21997
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA21984
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA22021
AdairOREGON22018
ElktonOREGON22023
CoquilleOREGON22024
KamilcheWASHINGTON22006
IssaquahWASHINGTON21971
CougarWASHINGTON22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.