BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.01–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.01–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.010.83
20270.420.010.83
20280.420.010.83
20290.420.010.83
20300.420.010.83

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Purple Martin in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bunker HillWASHINGTON212025
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON142025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA132012
HolmesCALIFORNIA82013
Hazel CampOREGON82022
WedderburnOREGON62025
LoraneOREGON62025
Fish RockCALIFORNIA52014
NavarroCALIFORNIA52011
LongvaleCALIFORNIA52013
CarnationWASHINGTON52025
Mendota 3WASHINGTON52025
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON52021
Rio DellCALIFORNIA42011
HauserOREGON41979
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA31973
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA32025
ScappooseOREGON32025
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA22025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA21997
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA21984
AdairOREGON22018
ElktonOREGON22023
GlasgowOREGON22025
CoquilleOREGON22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.