BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+170%Since 1970
24Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Purple Martin has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029
3.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.295% range
±25.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.00.006.2
20263.00.006.2
20273.00.006.2
20283.10.006.2
20293.10.006.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Purple Martin in Sierra Madre Occidental.
AlpineARIZONA162023
Forest LakesARIZONA142024
RedingtonARIZONA142023
PinetopARIZONA132022
Happy JackARIZONA122024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA112021
PomereneARIZONA92024
SprucedaleARIZONA62023
SahuaritaARIZONA52023
PortalARIZONA51979
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32007
PrescottARIZONA22012
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21989
PatagoniaARIZONA21981
WilliamsARIZONA22019
CutterARIZONA22000
FlagstaffARIZONA12022
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
Peña BlancaARIZONA11994
AmadoARIZONA12018
Carr MtnARIZONA12000
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.