BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
340Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 6.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 6.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.216
2026127.116
2027127.016
2028127.016
2029116.916

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Purple Martin in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI3042008
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA941991
OusleyGEORGIA882024
GrangeburgALABAMA742024
DoverGEORGIA622024
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA612009
New HopeFLORIDA582011
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA572024
LibertyALABAMA552022
BrundidgeALABAMA522021
ElamvilleALABAMA482024
FairviewALABAMA462024
MansfieldTENNESSEE462024
MclellanALABAMA452024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI442016
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA441999
WorkmoreGEORGIA432019
Rock ChapelALABAMA382024
LyonsGEORGIA361994
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA361995
LakeviewGEORGIA352024
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA351981
FoleyALABAMA341984
WadleyGEORGIA342024
Latimer 2MISSISSIPPI342023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.