BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 5.1–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 5.1–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026194.833
2027194.933
2028194.933
2029195.033
2030195.133

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA1951988
Morgan CityLOUISIANA1251986
LaroseLOUISIANA691992
River RoadLOUISIANA552025
KeystoneLOUISIANA492013
BrousvilleLOUISIANA422025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE402025
HaytiMISSOURI392021
GibsonLOUISIANA372019
SaffellARKANSAS362019
BerwickLOUISIANA342018
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI342025
FloydLOUISIANA302021
KraemerLOUISIANA302025
FreetownLOUISIANA232019
MayflowerLOUISIANA232025
ConcordLOUISIANA212019
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA202025
EnglandARKANSAS172025
WilsonARKANSAS152025
GonzalesLOUISIANA152019
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI152021
BlodgettMISSOURI132025
WhittonARKANSAS111991
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.