BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 5.7–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±160.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 5.7–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025195.433
2026195.533
2027205.633
2028205.733
2029205.734

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Purple Martin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA1951988
Morgan CityLOUISIANA1251986
River RoadLOUISIANA1152024
LaroseLOUISIANA691992
KeystoneLOUISIANA492013
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE492023
BlodgettMISSOURI422024
HaytiMISSOURI392021
GibsonLOUISIANA372019
SaffellARKANSAS362019
BrousvilleLOUISIANA352024
BerwickLOUISIANA342018
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI322024
MayflowerLOUISIANA302024
FloydLOUISIANA302021
KraemerLOUISIANA252024
FreetownLOUISIANA232019
ConcordLOUISIANA212019
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE192023
Rayville 2LOUISIANA182024
DellARKANSAS162024
EnglandARKANSAS162024
GonzalesLOUISIANA152019
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI152021
EudoraARKANSAS142016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.