BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968
83Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Purple Martin has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1384.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.595% range
±1384.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.001.5
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Purple Martin in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
BenaMINNESOTA351977
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN121980
BemidjiMINNESOTA121980
SkeelsMICHIGAN91981
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN81979
ExelandWISCONSIN71992
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN61992
CreightonMICHIGAN61980
Island LakeMINNESOTA61988
NebishMINNESOTA61995
TahquamenonMICHIGAN51980
BackusMINNESOTA51997
ShingletonMICHIGAN41981
RacoMICHIGAN41974
PickfordMICHIGAN41994
OberlinMICHIGAN41986
LudeMINNESOTA42001
Rib LakeWISCONSIN41989
CunardMICHIGAN31992
Lake CityMICHIGAN31976
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN32011
CromwellMINNESOTA32024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA32023
McgregorMINNESOTA32022
BayfieldWISCONSIN31993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.