BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Gallinule In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Purple Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Gallinule has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Gallinule In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±384.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±384.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±384.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.08
20230.000.000.08
20240.000.000.08
20250.000.000.08
20260.000.000.08

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Purple Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DarienGEORGIA171967
FairviewALABAMA21997
LovedaleFLORIDA22011
St Vincent IFLORIDA22018
Dauphin IsALABAMA11988
Alabama PtALABAMA11991
MadridALABAMA12004
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12000
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12019
Oak GroveFLORIDA12007
Broad BranchFLORIDA11981
MiccosukeeFLORIDA11973
CovingtonFLORIDA11977
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA11975
PinettaFLORIDA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.