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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plain Chachalaca Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Plain Chachalaca in Texas has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-48%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plain Chachalaca Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Plain Chachalaca in Texas. See the full index history below.

Plain Chachalaca Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Plain Chachalaca in Texas is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plain Chachalaca in Texas is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.11
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.030.000.10
20290.030.000.10

Plain Chachalaca Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Plain Chachalaca in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag Atascosa420241974
Heidelberg420242021
L. Atascosa Nwr220231999
Progreso219971997
Raymondville120231984
Zapata119871987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.