BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plain Chachalaca

CracidaeGame birdsOrtalis vetula

Plain Chachalaca has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-49%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Plain Chachalaca

The Plain Chachalaca (Ortalis vetula) is a North American member of the Chachalacas & Guans (Cracidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the game birds.

Size
19.5–23.5 in long (50–60 cm) — a large, long-tailed game bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Fields, brushland, prairie and the forest floor, where it forages and nests on the ground.
Diet
Seeds, grain, buds, leaves and insects gathered on the ground.
Range
Recorded on 6 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state.
Family
Cracidae · Game birds

Notable Plain Chachalaca TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Plain Chachalaca. See the full index history below.

Plain Chachalaca Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Plain Chachalaca is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plain Chachalaca is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01

Where the Plain Chachalaca Is Detected

BBS routes recording Plain Chachalaca, sized by most recent count.

Plain Chachalaca Population Trend by State

Plain Chachalaca population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Texas-48%19786

Plain Chachalaca Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 49% since 1978.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.