BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Grosbeak Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Pine Grosbeak in Utah has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-77%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Grosbeak Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Grosbeak has collapsed in Utah: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Pine Grosbeak Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.15
20260.000.000.15
20270.000.000.15
20280.000.000.15
20290.000.000.15

Pine Grosbeak Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Pine Grosbeak in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Navajo Lake419681968
La Sal220001993
La Sal 3220222010
Skyline Driv119921986
Gooseberry120081997
Grizzly Rdge120231997
Dixie Nf119961996
Wasatch Nf120231988
Red Spur Mtn.120232006
Heber Mtn.120241996
Fish Lake Nf120132004
Ferron120062006
Soapstone120241996

Pine Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananevadanew-mexicooregonwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.