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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Grosbeak Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Pine Grosbeak in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-61%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Grosbeak Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Pine Grosbeak Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Alaska is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Alaska is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.001.3
20260.500.001.2
20270.490.001.2
20280.480.001.2
20290.470.001.2

Pine Grosbeak Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pine Grosbeak in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpenglow (Short)6619961996
Juneau1120062006
Kodiak 21020241985
Copper River1020111994
Unalakleet River820242008
Hope720241985
Nabesna Road719891989
Moose Pass619851983
Seven Lakes520231986
Chistochina420231990
Northway420161989
Swan Lake Rd420231982
Sitka (Short)419841984
Kanuti Canyn420042002
Anvik River420232008
Gweek River420021999
Sourdough320211989
Bear Creek319881987
Yakutat320231993
Chiniak320241985
Mitkof Isle319941988
Nicholai Sl320021993
Kobuk River (Short)319921991
Kenai Lake (Short)319841984
Paxson Lake319951995

Pine Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.