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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Grosbeak Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Pine Grosbeak in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-50%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Grosbeak Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Pine Grosbeak Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Alaska is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.84 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Alaska is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.84 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.001.3
20270.520.001.3
20280.510.001.2
20290.500.001.2
20300.490.001.2

Pine Grosbeak Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pine Grosbeak in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpenglow (Short)6619961996
Juneau1120062006
Copper River1020111994
Kuskulana1020251990
Unalakleet River820242008
Nabesna Road719891989
Moose Pass619851983
Yakutat620251993
Kodiak 2520251985
Seven Lakes520251986
Chistochina420231990
Northway420161989
Sitka (Short)419841984
Mccarthy Rd2420251992
Kanuti Canyn420042002
Anvik River420232008
Gweek River420021999
Craig320252000
Thompson Pas320252016
Sourdough320211989
Katmai N.P.320252000
Bear Creek319881987
Chiniak320251985
Mitkof Isle319941988
Nicholai Sl320021993

Pine Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.