BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pied-billed Grebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+105%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pied-billed Grebe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pied-billed Grebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.32–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.32–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.263.7
20272.00.273.7
20282.00.293.7
20292.00.313.7
20302.00.323.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA431999
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA262025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA152025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA152011
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA152012
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA132023
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA92009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA72025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA72025
Big StoneMINNESOTA62012
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA52025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA52025
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA52012
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA52022
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42023
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA42025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
CourtlandMINNESOTA32025
MaynardMINNESOTA32006
TracyMINNESOTA32018
VirgelleMONTANA32025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA32013
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA32025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA32023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.