BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Peregrine Falcon In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Peregrine Falcon in Great Basin has surged: up 501% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+501%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Peregrine Falcon in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Peregrine Falcon In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.010.06
20260.040.010.06
20270.040.010.06
20280.040.010.06
20290.040.010.06

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Peregrine Falcon in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WapatoWASHINGTON32022
BentonCALIFORNIA22019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA22024
Indian PeakUTAH22018
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12019
DorrisCALIFORNIA11995
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA11996
Iron GateCALIFORNIA12018
LeadoreIDAHO12024
Blacks CreekIDAHO12005
RirieIDAHO12021
MoraIDAHO12021
Silver CityIDAHO12014
HikoNEVADA11998
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA12006
Meadow VallyNEVADA12024
PaisleyOREGON11996
Mt HoodOREGON12021
Harney LakeOREGON12022
PromontoryUTAH12023
Oak CityUTAH12000
GoshenUTAH12024
FairfieldUTAH12015
Bear RiverUTAH12022
CallaoUTAH12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.