Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Peregrine Falcon In BCR 4
Peregrine Falcon in BCR 4 has surged: up 263% on the route-weighted index since 1998.
+263%Since 1998
16Routes In Region
23Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Peregrine Falcon has surged in BCR 4: up 263% on the route-weighted index since 1998.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 66% by 2027 — from 0.07 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.04–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+66%Change by 2027
0.11Projected 2027 index
0.04–0.1995% range
±43.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| 2024 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| 2025 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| 2026 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| 2027 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Northway | ALASKA | 2 | 2019 |
| Eagle | ALASKA | 1 | 2014 |
| Slana | ALASKA | 1 | 2005 |
| Tower Bluffs | ALASKA | 1 | 2010 |
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 1 | 2013 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 1 | 1997 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Chicken | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Unalakleet River | ALASKA | 1 | 2006 |
| Hather Creek | ALASKA | 1 | 2015 |
| Kanuti Canyn | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Mcgrath | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Manley Ht Sp | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Porcupine R. | ALASKA | 1 | 1998 |
| Anvik River | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Kanuti Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.