BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Peregrine Falcon In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Peregrine Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+3%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Peregrine Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Peregrine Falcon In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.040.000.08
20290.040.000.08

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Peregrine Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PiedraCOLORADO32007
Main CanyonUTAH32001
Wray GulchCOLORADO22017
Baxter PassCOLORADO22024
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO22017
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO22018
HiteUTAH22015
FayetteUTAH22018
Mt TrumbullARIZONA11992
House RockARIZONA12019
ToroweapARIZONA12021
Dry ParkARIZONA12008
PageARIZONA12012
Many FarmsARIZONA11993
Navajo TrailARIZONA12016
Peach SpringARIZONA12011
YampaCOLORADO12009
Douglas PassCOLORADO12023
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12006
ColonaCOLORADO12010
ParlinCOLORADO12019
FalfaCOLORADO12024
UncompahgreCOLORADO12000
DoylevilleCOLORADO12022
GuffeyCOLORADO12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.