BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Peregrine Falcon In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Peregrine Falcon in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+63%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Peregrine Falcon in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04
20290.020.000.04

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Peregrine Falcon in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.MONTANA22023
MaybellCOLORADO12015
LayCOLORADO12021
NaplesIDAHO12011
CascadeIDAHO11983
ChallisIDAHO11997
Crane CreekIDAHO11998
ChestnutMONTANA12024
BeaverheadMONTANA11996
Red RockMONTANA11994
Painted RockMONTANA12004
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA12018
Summit PrOREGON12023
RandolphUTAH12022
Neponset ResUTAH12010
Omak CreekWASHINGTON12014
Ne EntranceWYOMING12010
DuboisWYOMING12017
ErvayWYOMING12024
RiversideWYOMING12012
MammothWYOMING12024
Hunter PeakWYOMING11997
ClarkWYOMING12003
MooseWYOMING12000
LovellWYOMING12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.