BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Pacific Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+129%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pacific Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.20–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.20–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.181.7
20260.960.191.7
20270.960.191.7
20280.960.201.7
20290.970.201.7

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlacierWASHINGTON532024
Cascade RivWASHINGTON332006
White ChuckWASHINGTON312024
KendallWASHINGTON272024
IndexWASHINGTON271997
Index 2WASHINGTON212023
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON182019
ConcreteWASHINGTON132024
BartleCALIFORNIA81974
NewhalemWASHINGTON82024
IndexWASHINGTON71971
No CascadesWASHINGTON42019
JarbidgeNEVADA32015
Mt HoodOREGON32022
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON32024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON32024
RimrockWASHINGTON22024
MazamaWASHINGTON22022
ImnahaOREGON11968
Camp ShermanOREGON11992
Badger CreekOREGON12022
Picture FlatOREGON12021
TwispWASHINGTON12012
SnowdenWASHINGTON12024
WinthropWASHINGTON11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.