BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pacific Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Pacific Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+106%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pacific Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pacific Wren In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Great Basin is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.17–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Great Basin is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.17–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.161.7
20270.930.161.7
20280.930.171.7
20290.940.171.7
20300.940.171.7

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlacierWASHINGTON532024
White ChuckWASHINGTON352025
Cascade RivWASHINGTON332006
IndexWASHINGTON271997
Index 2WASHINGTON212023
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON182019
ConcreteWASHINGTON112025
KendallWASHINGTON102025
BartleCALIFORNIA81974
NewhalemWASHINGTON72025
IndexWASHINGTON71971
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON42025
No CascadesWASHINGTON42019
JarbidgeNEVADA32015
RimrockWASHINGTON32025
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON32025
MazamaWASHINGTON22022
ImnahaOREGON11968
Mt HoodOREGON12025
Camp ShermanOREGON11992
Badger CreekOREGON12022
Picture FlatOREGON12021
TwispWASHINGTON12012
SnowdenWASHINGTON12024
WinthropWASHINGTON11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.