BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pacific Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+145%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pacific Wren has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pacific Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151020
2027161021
2028161121
2029161121
2030161121

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CraigALASKA762025
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA762013
PetersburgALASKA731987
Beaver CreekALASKA661977
Whale PassALASKA652024
Thorne BayALASKA572012
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA562025
Chichagof IsALASKA482024
FisherOREGON472010
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA422010
Klickitat MtOREGON411996
Mitkof IsleALASKA402025
NeiltonWASHINGTON391975
OzetteWASHINGTON382025
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON352025
HoonahALASKA322024
WaldportOREGON322001
Sandy RiverOREGON322006
TaholahWASHINGTON322022
SitkaALASKA312024
Kuiu IslandALASKA312010
ZaremboALASKA282024
Sitka (Short)ALASKA261992
Harlan 2OREGON262025
Bull RunOREGON262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.