BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+161%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pacific Wren has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161121
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA762013
PetersburgALASKA731987
Beaver CreekALASKA661977
CraigALASKA652024
Whale PassALASKA652024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA622024
Thorne BayALASKA572012
Mt St HelensWASHINGTON512024
Chichagof IsALASKA482024
FisherOREGON472010
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA422010
Bull RunOREGON422024
Klickitat MtOREGON411996
NeiltonWASHINGTON391975
SantiamOREGON372024
Mitkof IsleALASKA332024
YakutatALASKA322024
HoonahALASKA322024
WaldportOREGON322001
Sandy RiverOREGON322006
TaholahWASHINGTON322022
SitkaALASKA312024
Zimovia StrtALASKA312024
Kuiu IslandALASKA312010
ZaremboALASKA282024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.