BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Rockies has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+190%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has surged in Northern Rockies: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Orange-crowned Warbler In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.22.4
20261.81.22.4
20271.81.22.4
20281.81.22.5
20291.91.32.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CusickWASHINGTON272024
CoolinIDAHO192024
Rochat DivdeIDAHO162023
LaurierWASHINGTON152022
ChewelahWASHINGTON142021
KellerWASHINGTON132007
CloverlandWASHINGTON122024
Omak CreekWASHINGTON112024
TroyOREGON92024
Black Mtn.OREGON82004
DesolationOREGON81999
AlpineWYOMING82024
Prior FlatsWYOMING82017
Twin LakesWASHINGTON72024
GoldenIDAHO61995
ArleeMONTANA62024
Whitefish LakeMONTANA62024
Inside RoadMONTANA62024
Greenoagh 3MONTANA62024
Howard Mdws.OREGON62019
Spring LakeWASHINGTON62024
Sullivan LkWASHINGTON61999
MivodenIDAHO52023
GraniteOREGON51989
PolsonMONTANA42019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.