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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Olive Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Olive Sparrow in Texas has surged: up 632% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+632%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive Sparrow has surged in Texas: up 632% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Olive Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Olive Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.32.8
20272.11.42.9
20282.11.42.9
20292.21.42.9
20302.21.53.0

Olive Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Olive Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Encinal4220101970
Millett 23520242013
Three Rivers3320251994
Sejita2920242008
Kingsville2320241967
George West2320251967
Lag Atascosa2220251969
Agua Nueva2220231976
Loyola Beach2120091995
Raymondville1920251970
San Pedro1820231996
Randado1720251973
Guerra1720251988
Catarina1620101977
Mirando City1420252007
El Sauz1420231993
L. Atascosa Nwr1220251998
Campbellton1220241975
Cavasara Cr.1120252007
Indian Mtn1020251997
Loyola Beach 2920252010
Hondo920251975
Millett920121995
Brite920251994
Dilley920252018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.