BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Olive Sparrow in Texas has surged: up 683% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+683%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive Sparrow has surged in Texas: up 683% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Olive Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Olive Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.32.8
20262.11.42.9
20272.21.42.9
20282.21.42.9
20292.21.53.0

Olive Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Olive Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Encinal4220101970
George West3620241967
Three Rivers3620241994
Millett 23520242013
Sejita2920242008
Lag Atascosa2620241969
Kingsville2320241967
Hondo2320241975
Agua Nueva2220231976
Loyola Beach2120091995
Rachal1820231967
San Pedro1820231996
Randado1620241973
Mirando City1620242007
Catarina1620101977
Indian Mtn1520241997
El Sauz1420231993
Campbellton1220241975
Brite1120241994
Catarina 31120242018
Raymondville1020241970
Loyola Beach 2920242010
Millett920121995
Guerra920231988
La Pryor820171969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.