BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Waterthrush has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Waterthrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.020.15
20260.090.020.15
20270.090.020.15
20280.090.020.16
20290.090.020.16

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrimmsWISCONSIN42021
MerrillWISCONSIN32024
UnityWISCONSIN31974
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21989
HolwayWISCONSIN21976
CascoWISCONSIN22023
GreshamWISCONSIN22024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11977
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN11999
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN11985
BeldingMICHIGAN11985
RemusMICHIGAN12023
No BradleyMICHIGAN12014
JuniataMICHIGAN12005
WaldenburgMICHIGAN11991
HungerfordMICHIGAN12016
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12022
AlmenaMICHIGAN11998
DresserWISCONSIN12010
LoraineWISCONSIN12015
CumberlandWISCONSIN12012
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN12015
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN12017
Stevens PtWISCONSIN12023
ElderonWISCONSIN12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.