BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-62%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 393% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1099.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+393%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1099.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 393% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1099.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.003.9
20261.000.003.9
20271.00.004.0
20281.00.004.0
20291.00.004.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA212011
ArbuckleFLORIDA91993
Pennywash CrFLORIDA82009
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA62010
Holey LandFLORIDA62024
ShawanoFLORIDA52001
Wildernes PkFLORIDA52005
ChildsFLORIDA42014
DeanvilleFLORIDA32013
RomeoFLORIDA22011
Dale MabryFLORIDA21972
ScottsmoorFLORIDA21973
Sunniland GrFLORIDA22010
IndiantownFLORIDA22006
Ft MccoyFLORIDA21987
NobletonFLORIDA22011
AlvaFLORIDA22000
Weaver StnFLORIDA22012
Mabel 2FLORIDA22012
Punta GordaFLORIDA21992
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22024
CroomFLORIDA21992
Green SwampFLORIDA21994
Myakka HeadFLORIDA12011
San AntonioFLORIDA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.