BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-62%Since 1971
38Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 393% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1099.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+393%Change by 2029
1.0Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.095% range
±1099.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.980.003.9
20261.000.003.9
20271.00.004.0
20281.00.004.0
20291.00.004.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Peninsular Florida.
Shawano 2FLORIDA212011
ArbuckleFLORIDA91993
Pennywash CrFLORIDA82009
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA62010
Holey LandFLORIDA62024
ShawanoFLORIDA52001
Wildernes PkFLORIDA52005
ChildsFLORIDA42014
DeanvilleFLORIDA32013
RomeoFLORIDA22011
Dale MabryFLORIDA21972
ScottsmoorFLORIDA21973
Sunniland GrFLORIDA22010
IndiantownFLORIDA22006
Ft MccoyFLORIDA21987
NobletonFLORIDA22011
AlvaFLORIDA22000
Weaver StnFLORIDA22012
Mabel 2FLORIDA22012
Punta GordaFLORIDA21992
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22024
CroomFLORIDA21992
Green SwampFLORIDA21994
Myakka HeadFLORIDA12011
San AntonioFLORIDA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.