BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
308Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.80–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.80–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.802.8
20271.80.802.8
20281.80.802.8
20291.80.802.8
20301.80.802.8

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI1542008
DuffeeMISSISSIPPI1502008
Trace HindsMISSISSIPPI782025
DickeyGEORGIA562018
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI502017
HarrellALABAMA252025
CottonGEORGIA242024
AutaugavilleALABAMA232025
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI232012
HowardALABAMA222025
BeverlyMISSISSIPPI202011
MaconMISSISSIPPI202025
EpesALABAMA162024
WhitevilleTENNESSEE162025
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA152014
LacrossGEORGIA142021
WadleyGEORGIA142024
LakeviewGEORGIA142025
GreensboroALABAMA132022
RiderwoodALABAMA122019
BillingsleyALABAMA122022
LucienMISSISSIPPI122007
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA112011
BaxleyGEORGIA112011
Lake ComoMISSISSIPPI112021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.