BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
307Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.78–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.78–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.782.8
20261.80.782.8
20271.80.782.8
20281.80.782.8
20291.80.782.8

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI1542008
DuffeeMISSISSIPPI1502008
DickeyGEORGIA562018
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI502017
AutaugavilleALABAMA272024
CottonGEORGIA242024
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI232012
BeverlyMISSISSIPPI202011
Minter TweedGEORGIA192024
HowardALABAMA162024
EpesALABAMA162024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA152014
LacrossGEORGIA142021
WadleyGEORGIA142024
GreensboroALABAMA132022
RiderwoodALABAMA122019
BillingsleyALABAMA122022
LucienMISSISSIPPI122007
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA112011
BaxleyGEORGIA112011
Lake ComoMISSISSIPPI112021
Oak GroveFLORIDA102015
St Vincent IFLORIDA102011
CuthbertGEORGIA102024
BackbayVIRGINIA101966

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.