BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.4–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.4–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.33.9
20272.61.33.9
20282.61.33.9
20292.61.33.9
20302.71.44.0

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE822019
KeysburgKENTUCKY342025
PalaceMISSOURI242025
TullahomaTENNESSEE222015
SwaimALABAMA212025
FarwellARKANSAS202018
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA172014
NewberryINDIANA172025
DrakesboroKENTUCKY171993
White HouseTENNESSEE152019
PinevilleMISSOURI132016
CantonKENTUCKY122025
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE122025
SanduskyILLINOIS112023
LincolnMISSOURI112024
TrianaALABAMA102012
LeveeKENTUCKY101982
RussellARKANSAS82021
CascadeMISSOURI82025
Indian SpgsINDIANA72025
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY72025
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY72024
SyracuseMISSOURI72024
Osage BeachMISSOURI72025
AzaliaINDIANA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.