BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968
155Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.3–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029
2.7Projected 2029 index
1.3–4.095% range
±65.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.61.33.9
20262.61.33.9
20272.61.33.9
20282.61.34.0
20292.71.34.0

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE822019
TullahomaTENNESSEE222015
FarwellARKANSAS202018
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA172014
DrakesboroKENTUCKY171993
HaydenMISSOURI162021
White HouseTENNESSEE152019
Indian SpgsINDIANA142024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE142024
PinevilleMISSOURI132016
SanduskyILLINOIS112023
LincolnMISSOURI112024
PalaceMISSOURI112024
TrianaALABAMA102012
LeveeKENTUCKY101982
KeysburgKENTUCKY92022
RussellARKANSAS82021
GlenTENNESSEE82024
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY72024
SyracuseMISSOURI72024
WhitewaterMISSOURI72023
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE72024
Levee 2KENTUCKY62019
ClementineMISSOURI62002
BarksMISSOURI62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.