BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.3–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.3–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.33.9
20262.61.33.9
20272.61.33.9
20282.61.34.0
20292.71.34.0

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE822019
TullahomaTENNESSEE222015
FarwellARKANSAS202018
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA172014
DrakesboroKENTUCKY171993
HaydenMISSOURI162021
White HouseTENNESSEE152019
Indian SpgsINDIANA142024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE142024
PinevilleMISSOURI132016
SanduskyILLINOIS112023
LincolnMISSOURI112024
PalaceMISSOURI112024
TrianaALABAMA102012
LeveeKENTUCKY101982
KeysburgKENTUCKY92022
RussellARKANSAS82021
GlenTENNESSEE82024
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY72024
SyracuseMISSOURI72024
WhitewaterMISSOURI72023
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE72024
Levee 2KENTUCKY62019
ClementineMISSOURI62002
BarksMISSOURI62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.