BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 173% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.79–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+173%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 173% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.79–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.803.5
20262.10.803.5
20272.10.793.5
20282.10.793.5
20292.10.793.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EsdaileWISCONSIN222023
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN202023
ChatfieldMINNESOTA141999
CochraneWISCONSIN142022
GuilfordILLINOIS132023
GilmantonWISCONSIN132022
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA112019
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN92018
AnnatonWISCONSIN82024
HamtramckMICHIGAN71984
AdairMICHIGAN71995
MillvilleMINNESOTA72018
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA72024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN72018
LagrangeINDIANA62024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN62018
DeckervilleMICHIGAN62016
HamburgMICHIGAN62001
VeronaWISCONSIN62023
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN62024
FowlervilleMICHIGAN52005
KendallWISCONSIN52022
PardeevilleWISCONSIN52021
Fall RiverWISCONSIN52024
HighlandWISCONSIN52021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.