BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.95 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.68–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.95 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.68–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.693.4
20272.10.693.4
20282.10.683.4
20292.00.683.4
20302.00.683.4

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN202023
ChatfieldMINNESOTA141999
CochraneWISCONSIN142022
GuilfordILLINOIS132023
LagrangeINDIANA122025
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA112019
EsdaileWISCONSIN102025
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN92018
HamtramckMICHIGAN71984
AdairMICHIGAN71995
MillvilleMINNESOTA72018
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA72024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN72018
PrattvilleMICHIGAN62018
DeckervilleMICHIGAN62016
RochesterMICHIGAN62025
HamburgMICHIGAN62001
TrempealeauWISCONSIN62025
VeronaWISCONSIN62023
FowlervilleMICHIGAN52005
N FreedomWISCONSIN52025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN52021
HighlandWISCONSIN52021
PackertownINDIANA42004
BeldingMICHIGAN42001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.