BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 92% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 92% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.001.9
20260.850.001.9
20270.840.001.9
20280.840.001.9
20290.840.001.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA1002022
PoncaNEBRASKA252019
TylerMINNESOTA112015
HuntleyMINNESOTA102010
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA101995
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA82024
WashingtonIOWA72021
Big StoneMINNESOTA62012
ZearingIOWA51995
WestbyMONTANA52019
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA51993
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA51986
KanawhaIOWA41992
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
MccallsburgIOWA32023
TenneyMINNESOTA31994
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32009
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
ClareIOWA22015
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22021
CourtlandMINNESOTA22017
Redwood FallMINNESOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.