BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+90%Since 1969
102Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 92% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2029
0.84Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.995% range
±111.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.850.001.9
20260.850.001.9
20270.840.001.9
20280.840.001.9
20290.840.001.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA1002022
PoncaNEBRASKA252019
TylerMINNESOTA112015
HuntleyMINNESOTA102010
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA101995
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA82024
WashingtonIOWA72021
Big StoneMINNESOTA62012
ZearingIOWA51995
WestbyMONTANA52019
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA51993
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA51986
KanawhaIOWA41992
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
MccallsburgIOWA32023
TenneyMINNESOTA31994
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32009
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
ClareIOWA22015
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22021
CourtlandMINNESOTA22017
Redwood FallMINNESOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.