BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Northern Pintail in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-61%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Northern Pintail In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.99
20260.030.000.97
20270.010.000.95
20280.000.000.94
20290.000.000.94

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Northern Pintail in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nicholai SlALASKA112024
KachemakALASKA101998
Paxson LakeALASKA101995
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA72003
NebesnaALASKA61975
Bear CreekALASKA61991
MonahanALASKA52013
KalifonskyALASKA52022
Murphy DomeALASKA42006
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA41984
MaclarenALASKA32022
ToklatALASKA32018
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA31999
ChistochinaALASKA22021
HomerALASKA21982
Hather CreekALASKA22024
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA21995
Mud RiverALASKA22012
Porcupine R.ALASKA22001
Nabesna RoadALASKA21989
SlanaALASKA12024
NorthwayALASKA11994
CantwellALASKA12004
L SalchaALASKA11989
Kenny LakeALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.