BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Northern Pintail in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-61%Since 1983
39Routes In Region
40Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9495% range
±119.6%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.050.000.99
20260.030.000.97
20270.010.000.95
20280.000.000.94
20290.000.000.94

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Northern Pintail in BCR 4.
Nicholai SlALASKA112024
KachemakALASKA101998
Paxson LakeALASKA101995
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA72003
NebesnaALASKA61975
Bear CreekALASKA61991
MonahanALASKA52013
KalifonskyALASKA52022
Murphy DomeALASKA42006
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA41984
MaclarenALASKA32022
ToklatALASKA32018
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA31999
ChistochinaALASKA22021
HomerALASKA21982
Hather CreekALASKA22024
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA21995
Mud RiverALASKA22012
Porcupine R.ALASKA22001
Nabesna RoadALASKA21989
SlanaALASKA12024
NorthwayALASKA11994
CantwellALASKA12004
L SalchaALASKA11989
Kenny LakeALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.