BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pintail In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-89%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Pintail In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.62
20270.000.000.62
20280.000.000.62
20290.000.000.62
20300.000.000.62

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO502008
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO161985
WaverlyCOLORADO102018
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52025
YoderWYOMING52016
BriggsdaleCOLORADO41989
FlemingCOLORADO42003
KiowaCOLORADO42016
Last ChanceCOLORADO42003
LimonCOLORADO42016
KirkCOLORADO42009
LeotiKANSAS42021
CircleTEXAS41982
ChanningTEXAS41980
PantexTEXAS42018
AmherstCOLORADO31998
KarvalCOLORADO32019
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32017
BereaNEBRASKA31981
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO32009
ClaytonvilleTEXAS32019
PinneoCOLORADO21979
LamarCOLORADO22023
Mica ButteCOLORADO21982
Gordon CreekCOLORADO21998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.