Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Pintail In Shortgrass Prairie
Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
-94%Since 1973
57Routes In Region
53Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Northern Pintail has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6295% range
±131.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
Routes In Shortgrass Prairie
| Prospect Valley 2 | COLORADO | 50 | 2008 |
| Grenville | NEW-MEXICO | 16 | 1985 |
| Waverly | COLORADO | 10 | 2018 |
| Yoder | WYOMING | 5 | 2016 |
| Briggsdale | COLORADO | 4 | 1989 |
| Fleming | COLORADO | 4 | 2003 |
| Kiowa | COLORADO | 4 | 2016 |
| Last Chance | COLORADO | 4 | 2003 |
| Limon | COLORADO | 4 | 2016 |
| Kirk | COLORADO | 4 | 2009 |
| Leoti | KANSAS | 4 | 2021 |
| Circle | TEXAS | 4 | 1982 |
| Channing | TEXAS | 4 | 1980 |
| Pantex | TEXAS | 4 | 2018 |
| Amherst | COLORADO | 3 | 1998 |
| Karval | COLORADO | 3 | 2019 |
| Murray Lake | NEBRASKA | 3 | 2017 |
| Berea | NEBRASKA | 3 | 1981 |
| Maxwell | NEW-MEXICO | 3 | 2009 |
| Claytonville | TEXAS | 3 | 2019 |
| Pinneo | COLORADO | 2 | 1979 |
| Lamar | COLORADO | 2 | 2023 |
| Mica Butte | COLORADO | 2 | 1982 |
| Gordon Creek | COLORADO | 2 | 1998 |
| Villegreen | COLORADO | 2 | 2005 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.