BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-94%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Pintail In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.62
20260.000.000.62
20270.000.000.62
20280.000.000.62
20290.000.000.62

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO502008
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO161985
WaverlyCOLORADO102018
YoderWYOMING52016
BriggsdaleCOLORADO41989
FlemingCOLORADO42003
KiowaCOLORADO42016
Last ChanceCOLORADO42003
LimonCOLORADO42016
KirkCOLORADO42009
LeotiKANSAS42021
CircleTEXAS41982
ChanningTEXAS41980
PantexTEXAS42018
AmherstCOLORADO31998
KarvalCOLORADO32019
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32017
BereaNEBRASKA31981
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO32009
ClaytonvilleTEXAS32019
PinneoCOLORADO21979
LamarCOLORADO22023
Mica ButteCOLORADO21982
Gordon CreekCOLORADO21998
VillegreenCOLORADO22005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.