BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969
98Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.795% range
±43.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.80.007.9
20262.70.007.8
20272.70.007.8
20282.60.007.7
20292.60.007.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes.
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1071984
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA412023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA392023
VirgelleMONTANA382024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA312010
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA232023
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA232011
WestbyMONTANA212024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA212024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA212019
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA201983
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA192014
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA192023
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA182024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA182024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA162019
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA152013
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA142022
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA132019
Hay LakeMONTANA122019
SacoMONTANA122023
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA122024
TenneyMINNESOTA111990
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA112024
ChinookMONTANA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.