BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.007.9
20262.70.007.8
20272.70.007.8
20282.60.007.7
20292.60.007.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1071984
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA412023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA392023
VirgelleMONTANA382024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA312010
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA232023
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA232011
WestbyMONTANA212024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA212024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA212019
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA201983
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA192014
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA192023
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA182024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA182024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA162019
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA152013
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA142022
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA132019
Hay LakeMONTANA122019
SacoMONTANA122023
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA122024
TenneyMINNESOTA111990
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA112024
ChinookMONTANA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.