BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 15–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 15–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025551992
2026541890
2027531789
2028521688
2029511587

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS1572024
Millett 2TEXAS1272024
MillettTEXAS1032012
Mirando CityTEXAS982024
George WestTEXAS922024
EncinalTEXAS852010
ZapataTEXAS841987
San YgnacioTEXAS841985
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS812023
RaymondvilleTEXAS792024
El SauzTEXAS732023
DilleyTEXAS732024
Catarina 2TEXAS672017
SejitaTEXAS662024
RachalTEXAS582023
ProgresoTEXAS522011
GuerraTEXAS502023
KingsvilleTEXAS492024
Catarina 3TEXAS472024
CatarinaTEXAS422010
El IndioTEXAS422007
RandadoTEXAS382024
Encinal 2TEXAS322024
LaredoTEXAS232023
Pedro CreekTEXAS192010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.