BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.95–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.95–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151.429
2027151.329
2028151.229
2029151.129
2030150.9529

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA742024
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA392025
Forest LakesARIZONA312025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA282025
DragoonARIZONA282009
McnealARIZONA242025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO182025
San SimonARIZONA152024
Clay SpringARIZONA152025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO152025
SunizonaARIZONA141997
Aztec PeakARIZONA131978
RuckerARIZONA132009
Bartlett ResARIZONA122025
PatagoniaARIZONA112024
PortalARIZONA112025
WilliamsARIZONA102025
Mormon LakeARIZONA81975
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO82025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO72023
PinetopARIZONA62022
Peña BlancaARIZONA42025
RedingtonARIZONA42025
AmadoARIZONA42023
PrescottARIZONA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.