BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 1.7–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 1.7–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025162.030
2026161.930
2027161.830
2028161.830
2029161.730

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA742024
Clay SpringARIZONA742024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA532024
Bartlett ResARIZONA422024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO322024
DragoonARIZONA282009
RedingtonARIZONA252023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO242024
McnealARIZONA222024
Peña BlancaARIZONA202024
Forest LakesARIZONA202024
Carr MtnARIZONA172024
PortalARIZONA162024
San SimonARIZONA152024
SunizonaARIZONA141997
Aztec PeakARIZONA131978
RuckerARIZONA132009
SahuaritaARIZONA122024
PatagoniaARIZONA112024
Mormon LakeARIZONA81975
ReserveNEW-MEXICO72023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO72023
PinetopARIZONA62022
AmadoARIZONA42023
PrescottARIZONA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.