BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.40.0012
20265.30.0012
20275.30.0012
20285.30.0012
20295.30.0012

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ajo 2ARIZONA452019
BarstowCALIFORNIA381998
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA242024
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA232005
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA222002
Alamo Res.ARIZONA192023
Hope 2ARIZONA192019
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA192019
FlorenceARIZONA181988
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA152016
NelsonNEVADA152024
NeedlesCALIFORNIA141973
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA142010
PearblossomCALIFORNIA142024
Bates WellARIZONA122023
DarwinCALIFORNIA122005
AlamoNEVADA121973
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA102013
Ash MeadowsNEVADA102024
QuartzsiteARIZONA82024
AntaresARIZONA82024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA82018
Cabeza PrietARIZONA72024
Cactus ForestARIZONA72024
Organ PipeARIZONA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.