BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Coastal California has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Coastal California is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Coastal California is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.04.613
20269.04.613
20279.04.713
20289.04.713
20299.14.713

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA1241991
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA922022
AuburnCALIFORNIA501980
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA422024
MorenoCALIFORNIA412024
GravesboroCALIFORNIA381995
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA342024
WestleyCALIFORNIA332024
HughsonCALIFORNIA322024
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA292024
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA282004
RiovistaCALIFORNIA262024
MaricopaCALIFORNIA252024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA252011
TranquillityCALIFORNIA242024
ColmaCALIFORNIA231972
OrovilleCALIFORNIA232024
San YsidroCALIFORNIA222019
PowayCALIFORNIA201980
Mark WestCALIFORNIA202024
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA202023
South LakeCALIFORNIA192006
Red BluffCALIFORNIA182024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA182024
El ToroCALIFORNIA181999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.