BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
343Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 21–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 21–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025282234
2026282134
2027282134
2028272134
2029272133

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad BranchFLORIDA1202024
FoleyALABAMA1121984
BrantleyALABAMA962024
LovedaleFLORIDA932011
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA922024
Miller XrdsFLORIDA902019
GeorgetownALABAMA822024
CallahanFLORIDA752024
NewtonGEORGIA732024
DouglasGEORGIA731984
HumboldtTENNESSEE732024
GrangeburgALABAMA722024
FinleysonGEORGIA722024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI712016
LakeviewGEORGIA692024
New HopeFLORIDA682011
PittsGEORGIA682024
WeberGEORGIA672024
HendersonGEORGIA652024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA651991
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA652024
NashvilleGEORGIA642024
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA642024
St. ElmoALABAMA632021
BettsFLORIDA622024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.