BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
343Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 21–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 21–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026282235
2027282234
2028282134
2029282134
2030272134

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad BranchFLORIDA1402025
FoleyALABAMA1121984
GeorgetownALABAMA972025
ShilohGEORGIA952025
BrantleyALABAMA942025
LovedaleFLORIDA932011
Miller XrdsFLORIDA902019
BettsFLORIDA892025
HumboldtTENNESSEE892025
NewtonGEORGIA842025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA802025
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA792025
WeberGEORGIA782025
BishopvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA782025
Dowling ParkFLORIDA772025
FitzgeraldGEORGIA762025
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA762025
Bay MinetteALABAMA752025
CallahanFLORIDA752024
DouglasGEORGIA731984
GrangeburgALABAMA722024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI712016
HilliardFLORIDA702025
BlountstownFLORIDA692025
New HopeFLORIDA682011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.