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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 14–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 14–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261437
2027261437
2028251437
2029251436
2030251436

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeystoneLOUISIANA1142013
CarlisleLOUISIANA911988
BrousvilleLOUISIANA682025
River RoadLOUISIANA552025
MayflowerLOUISIANA472025
RayvilleLOUISIANA452008
GonzalesLOUISIANA452019
ConcordLOUISIANA442019
SaffellARKANSAS432019
GibsonLOUISIANA402019
KraemerLOUISIANA382025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA372025
KelsoARKANSAS362016
ShawLOUISIANA352024
DelhiLOUISIANA352021
Morgan CityLOUISIANA341986
RoselandLOUISIANA332025
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI311994
FloydLOUISIANA302021
Rayville 2LOUISIANA292025
UlmARKANSAS232025
WhittonARKANSAS221991
HarrisburgARKANSAS212019
EnglandARKANSAS212025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.