BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 15–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 15–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261537
2026261537
2027261537
2028261537
2029261537

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeystoneLOUISIANA1142013
CarlisleLOUISIANA911988
River RoadLOUISIANA682024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA652024
MayflowerLOUISIANA462024
RayvilleLOUISIANA452008
GonzalesLOUISIANA452019
Rayville 2LOUISIANA442024
ConcordLOUISIANA442019
SaffellARKANSAS432019
Baton RougeLOUISIANA422024
RoselandLOUISIANA402024
GibsonLOUISIANA402019
KelsoARKANSAS362016
ShawLOUISIANA352024
DelhiLOUISIANA352021
Morgan CityLOUISIANA341986
KraemerLOUISIANA322024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI311994
FloydLOUISIANA302021
FrogmoreLOUISIANA272024
EnglandARKANSAS262024
BelairLOUISIANA232024
WhittonARKANSAS221991
HarrisburgARKANSAS212019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.