BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 2.8–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 2.8–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026113.119
2027113.019
2028113.019
2029112.919
2030112.819

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO1302021
PecosTEXAS922017
CrowleyCOLORADO912024
NinaviewCOLORADO842024
WinkTEXAS681986
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO622022
RankinTEXAS452025
VillegreenCOLORADO442024
TrincheraCOLORADO352025
KermitTEXAS351999
HobbsNEW-MEXICO312025
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO291975
FloydNEW-MEXICO292025
StilesTEXAS292025
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO281978
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO282025
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO281977
SedanNEW-MEXICO272025
FarleyNEW-MEXICO262025
LoganNEW-MEXICO252025
MentoneTEXAS252015
Cone MtnCOLORADO242024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO222025
ChanningTEXAS222018
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.