BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 3.2–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 3.2–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025123.420
2026113.420
2027113.319
2028113.219
2029113.219

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrincheraCOLORADO1412022
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO1302021
PecosTEXAS922017
CrowleyCOLORADO912024
NinaviewCOLORADO842024
WinkTEXAS681986
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO622022
VillegreenCOLORADO442024
LoganNEW-MEXICO362024
RankinTEXAS352024
KermitTEXAS351999
SedanNEW-MEXICO342024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO322024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO291975
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO281978
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO281977
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA282024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO252024
HobbsNEW-MEXICO252024
MentoneTEXAS252015
Cone MtnCOLORADO242024
StilesTEXAS242024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO232024
ChanningTEXAS222018
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO202023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.