BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+86%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.000.10
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11
20300.050.000.11

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA62009
SussexWYOMING42025
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA22007
Thunder BasinWYOMING22025
HighwoodMONTANA11979
JordanMONTANA12018
ShawmutMONTANA12024
IngomarMONTANA12024
LocateMONTANA12024
LindsayMONTANA12017
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA12011
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA12007
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA12006
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA12008
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA11988
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA11971
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA11968
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA11981
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA12002
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA12019
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA12011
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12025
RedbirdWYOMING11986
DwyerWYOMING12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.