BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Mockingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.50.009.0
20264.40.008.9
20274.30.008.8
20284.20.008.8
20294.10.008.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MountainairNEW-MEXICO1152024
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO622024
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO591997
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO551995
Mt TrumbullARIZONA521993
ZeniffARIZONA521984
NageesiNEW-MEXICO502024
PasturaNEW-MEXICO442024
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO412024
WalsenburgCOLORADO392024
SeligmanARIZONA372024
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO372024
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO352001
PecosNEW-MEXICO322017
ToroweapARIZONA282024
House RockARIZONA272022
YampaiARIZONA261977
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO262021
Glen CanyonUTAH252024
TorreonNEW-MEXICO242024
ShivwitzUTAH242024
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO232022
La PlataNEW-MEXICO212013
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO212016
Rose WellsARIZONA201978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.