BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.63.4
20272.61.73.4
20282.61.73.5
20292.61.83.5
20302.71.83.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdougallNEW-YORK212025
HighlandNEW-YORK152022
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK132025
ColchesterVERMONT132001
OrleansNEW-YORK122025
PittsfieldOHIO112024
LucerneOHIO112025
ByronNEW-YORK102025
LattasburgOHIO102025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91983
E YoungstownNEW-YORK92025
ArgyleNEW-YORK92024
North EastonNEW-YORK72025
ShaftsburyVERMONT72004
MaysvilleOHIO62012
NaplesNEW-YORK52025
HebronOHIO52025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA42025
GhentNEW-YORK32025
Canadice LNEW-YORK32025
HamburgNEW-YORK31999
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK32025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK32025
ClintonNEW-YORK32009
SalemNEW-YORK32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.