BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968
62Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
1.7–3.595% range
±35%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.51.63.3
20262.51.63.4
20272.51.63.4
20282.61.73.4
20292.61.73.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
OrleansNEW-YORK192024
LucerneOHIO172024
HighlandNEW-YORK152022
ColchesterVERMONT132001
PittsfieldOHIO112024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91983
ArgyleNEW-YORK92024
ByronNEW-YORK82024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK82024
NaplesNEW-YORK82024
GhentNEW-YORK72024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK72023
LattasburgOHIO72024
HebronOHIO72024
ShaftsburyVERMONT72004
MaysvilleOHIO62012
MacdougallNEW-YORK52024
RushvilleNEW-YORK52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52012
CloverPENNSYLVANIA42024
HamburgNEW-YORK31999
PenfieldNEW-YORK32024
ClintonNEW-YORK32009
North EastonNEW-YORK32024
New SomersetOHIO31966

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.