BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.63.3
20262.51.63.4
20272.51.63.4
20282.61.73.4
20292.61.73.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrleansNEW-YORK192024
LucerneOHIO172024
HighlandNEW-YORK152022
ColchesterVERMONT132001
PittsfieldOHIO112024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91983
ArgyleNEW-YORK92024
ByronNEW-YORK82024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK82024
NaplesNEW-YORK82024
GhentNEW-YORK72024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK72023
LattasburgOHIO72024
HebronOHIO72024
ShaftsburyVERMONT72004
MaysvilleOHIO62012
MacdougallNEW-YORK52024
RushvilleNEW-YORK52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52012
CloverPENNSYLVANIA42024
HamburgNEW-YORK31999
PenfieldNEW-YORK32024
ClintonNEW-YORK32009
North EastonNEW-YORK32024
New SomersetOHIO31966

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.